The United States may impose secondary duties on oil exports from Russia if the countries fail to reach an agreement on ending the Ukrainian conflict, Vedomosti writes, citing a statement by Donald Trump to NBC News.

"If I cannot reach a deal with Russia to stop the conflict in Ukraine, and I consider it Russia's fault — and it may not be, but if I think Russia is to blame, I will impose secondary duties on oil, on all oil from Russia," the US president said.

At the same time, the American president explained how such measures work.

"If you buy oil from Russia, then you cannot do business with the United States... There will be 25% tariffs on all oil, from 25% to 50% on all oil," he said.

The publication explains that secondary duties mean tariffs that can be imposed on goods from countries that purchase oil from the Russian Federation. The United States uses similar measures against those who buy oil from Venezuela.

Secondary duties may be imposed if a ceasefire deal is not reached within a month, Trump added.

The BCS view. There is a risk of another expansion of the discount on Russian oil. Since the beginning of 2022, the difference in the price of Urals oil to Brent grade has increased at least four times. The first time was in the spring of 2022, and the second time was in late 2022 or early 2023, when the EU imposed an embargo and the G7 set an upper price threshold. The discount increased for the third time at the end of 2023 with the next round of sanctions affecting logistics, and the fourth time in January 2025, when transportation came under relatively serious restrictions. Nevertheless, the discounts decreased quite quickly each time.

The uncertainty for the month is towards a decrease in the price of Russian oil. In the coming trading sessions, as well as if the United States takes the announced measures (which also depends on a number of conditions), Russian oil securities may come under pressure.

Undoubtedly, external restrictions negatively affect the export prices of Russian oil companies, but the desired effect has not yet been achieved. For example, the Urals price for tax purposes in 2024 was trading at an average discount of $13 per barrel to the Brent price, but it was $68 per barrel, which is significantly higher than the price ceiling of $60.

Of the companies under our analytical coverage, the players with a high share of sales of petroleum products in the Russian Federation are the most protected from the growth of the discount. These are Tatneft, Gazprom Neft and Bashneft.